Need of Education Essay

Examples: a) School qualifications > no training > semiskilling > work b) School qualifications > apprenticeship > skilled worker/skilled employee c) Lower/intermediate secondary school qualifications > apprenticeship > master craftsman d) University entrance qualifications > apprenticeship > additional training > occupation e) University entrance qualifications > apprenticeship > higher education > executive position f) University entrance qualifications > higher education > executive position These examples illustrate that there are two ways of looking at the benefits of training. The first, which is marginal in one sense, answers the question of what benefits are to be obtained from adding a further stage to the training path already completed. The second is more typical and concerned with the incomes to be obtained from specific training routes. A comparison is made between the incomes attained at 30 years of age and those resulting from the next lower training path. This may be, for example, the benefits of an enterprise-based apprenticeship on the road to an academic qualification (path 6 compared with path 5). The additional income minus the costs of training produces (allowing for interest) the return on the training investment. From a macroeconomic viewpoint, investments in education and training are, to a certain degree, investments in the infrastructure, and the return on such investments becomes apparent only in the long term. The concept of benefits also includes other aspects which need to be kept apart. It is helpful in the first instance to distinguish between the benefits resulting from the efficiency of the education system and its quantitative performance, on the one hand, and the benefits in terms of subsequent yields (economic growth, low unemployment, tax revenues) on the other. The efficiency benefit is the ability of the education and training system to train the younger generation in â€Å"suitable† institutions so as to minimize the costs of students repeating classes or dropping out of higher education and thus reduce excessively long education and training periods. The benefits from vocational education and training are also associated with the allocative functions of the labour market. One function of vocational education and training is to ensure that the supply of labour matches demand. A training system should at least produce approximately those qualifications which are required on the labour market. There are therefore two sides to the benefits of investments in training. In formal terms, the benefit is the return on a long-term investment, but this return results from the allocative effects of the labour market. It would be an excessively narrow perspective if researchers were to look only at the return on investment in terms of human capital. And concentrating exclusively on the allocative aspects of the labour market would ignore the fact that education and training are an investment in themselves. There is also a third aspect to consider. Return on investment calculations can normally encompass only the direct costs and benefits, i. e. the returns of the first type. But investments in education and training also have effects on other areas. There may be positive or negative effects of a second type. Positive (synergy) effects occur when investments in education and training at one point raise productivity at another. These include in particular education and training investments which equip their recipients to work in research and development. Negative secondary effects occur in the form of redundancies when lesser qualified employees are replaced by their more qualified counterparts. There are numerous ways in which expenses may be refunded for training outside the workplace (refunding), e. g. by employers and employment offices. These refunds are deducted from individual expenses in the costs model (cf.Figure 6, p. 232). The survey aimed, first, to establish the direct costs, i. e. expenses directly associated with the continuing training measure as such (course and event fees, spending on learning materials, travelling expenses, board and lodging, cost of child care where applicable, and all other costs directly associated with participation in continuing training programmes). The survey also looked at indirect, or opportunity, costs. Unlike direct costs, indirect costs entail no expenses, but arise in the form of lost earnings (e. g.  unpaid leave or reduced working hours for continuing training purposes, but not the hypothetical earnings of someone who was previously unemployed) and the loss of leisure time. The leisure time lost consists of that time spent exploring the market, the time invested in the actual training programme, travelling time, preparation and follow-up and, in some cases, paid leave. However, the yardsticks used to convert the loss of leisure time into fictitious costs are ultimately based entirely on random decisions. Even the net income earned from employment, which would be a plausible choice, does not provide a suitable measure here. Either the individual may not consider taking paid employment during leisure time – unless it is moonlighting – or may regard it as a consumer good rather than a loss of leisure time. For this reason, the BIBB survey was limited to recording the amount of leisure time lost and no attempt was made to place a monetary value on it. Neither was it possible to apply any rules for evaluating the benefits. While it is quite clear that the â€Å"profitability† of continuing training is determined by the benefits, the input encompasses not only the time and money invested, but also the physical and mental exertion associated with learning. Private individuals, just like companies, are willing to subject themselves to continuing training only if it yields overall â€Å"rewards†. But these rewards depend on whether the training is a consumer good and the benefits are to be found in actual consumption, or whether it has been chosen for career, i. e. economic, reasons. Economic benefits may arise in many different ways: continuing training may serve to refresh knowledge, to adjust to new developments, to secure promotion and raise status, or else to avoid unemployment. Another consideration is that the benefits are normally not yet visible at the actual time of training. Those who opt for continuing training hope it will secure them promotion or save them from unemployment. Whether these objectives are actually attained emerges at a later stage. It is therefore objectively impossible to isolate the economic benefits of continuing training from other benefit factors. For this reason the survey was limited to presenting the respondents with a list of benefits and asking them to rate their importance in qualitative terms. http://www. cedefop. europa. eu/EN/Files/RR1_Kau. pdf.

Journal for Advanced Lifespan Development

As far as disciplines are concerned in such a vast scientific world that people circulate in, when psychology was conceived and eventually became a separate field of concentration, it has become perhaps one of the most popular courses and career any individual would want to venture in. The main concerns however are left for aficionados to speculate that the study of human behavior, its scientific explorations on the human mind and its mental processes is also a very complex and quite difficult arena (Papalia et al, 2002).There are theories and theorists that abound to posit on the description, explanation or understanding and prediction (and if possible, modification or control) of behavior among human organisms. Despite the modern breakthroughs, there lies a tension between what has been known and what are still unknown on the creature called man (Bernstein, 1991). This paper is anchored on the understanding that psychology actually pertains to the human psyche which is the equivale nt of the soul and/or spirit where insights, knowledge and understanding reside.Where this is the central issue, spirituality similarly is attracted to the human mind where the attention that much of the Christian doctrine is also supposed to attend to or has been prepared to change. Baumrind’s theory of parenting styles Introduction Diana Baumrind developed a very widely known theory of parenting which created a great impact on the idea of parenting styles that most parents adhere to and follow today. The concept of main concepts include the authoritative, permissive and authoritarian models (Atkinson et al, 1993).The main idea concerns these styles and their impact on the resulting developing person. It is considered influential because it is perhaps the easiest to remember and where most parents or adults readily relate to in most cases (Morgan, 1977). The theory indeed has inspired a lot of consequent studies especially the implied and emphasized acceptance of the superio rity of the authoritative model over and against the rest of the other styles.In a sense, Baumrind and her theory or studies convey the clear message that there is such a correct way of rearing children and this she mentioned as the authoritative way (Thomson, 2005). Critiques of course abound as to the validity and applicability of her theory at all times or in all set-ups or situations. The studies many argue had only been correlation which means that there is no such direct â€Å"cause and effect† as one would have wanted to appear (Papalia et al, 2002, p. 301). Implications to CounselingCounseling in this perspective would imply that the counselor adhere to Baumrind’s understanding that there is the right way of bringing up children (Baumrind, 1959). However, as studies also reveal, parents never behave as consistently as they should as they relate with their children in all aspects of their lives (Baumrind, 1971). Here is the complication here. Counseling then, wo uld serve as guidance to parents and would-be parents as to what would emerge as more successful parenting by introducing and comparing the different parenting styles.Despite the fact that what was employed was correlational type of research methodology does not mean that the results have become altogether invalid or insignificant. It means that for most of those who advocate the authoritative style, children have emerged as more adjusted and more capable of getting into different stresses that life in reality has to offer (Bootzin, 1991). Implications to Culture Culture is of course influenced to the degree that people inhabiting certain localities or communities believe on the Baumrind model.It means that parents and adults who are primary caregivers adjust to the authoritative standpoint for a society to make a better chance of surviving and minimizing the chaos that people bring on themselves by virtue of living in a dysfunctional world (Baumrind, 1975; Bernstein, 1991). Culture then must give in to the idea that even if parents come from different ethnic groups or race, that does not deter them to adopt the â€Å"right† way of bringing up or rearing children. Implications to the Biblical worldview The Judeo-Christian worldview is definitely perhaps the primary reason that these styles have emerged.The backdrop of the styles mimic with the typical home where the bible and its influence may be peculiarly absent or obviously the hub from which the family must revolve around. The authoritarian is by and large a translation of the Judeo-Christian worldview of bringing up children and way of raising a family where cooperation is not taken for granted. It goes to show also that the Bible or Scriptures must take the front seat in all endeavors and decision-making processes. Conclusion Many get their inspiration for adopting their way of raising their family based on the Baumrind model.Indeed, it has been effective to a degree because it can easily be remem bered and understood. Usually, anyone coming from a background of any of the styles can immediately relate. Eph 6:1 admonishes children: â€Å"Children, obey your parents in the Lord: for this is right, and reinforced in Col 3:20, â€Å"Children, obey your parents in all things: for this is well pleasing unto the Lord† (KJV). Another is found in Proverbs 4:1, â€Å"Hear, my children, the instruction of a father, and give attention to know understanding† (NKJV).The parents then must see to it that the guidance must be contained in the context of the Christian home. Again, though, these must be taken in the context of the Scriptural admonition that wisdom comes from God through His Word. The day to day efforts and energies expended on raising children in the context of the Christian household entail more than an accumulation of experiences and knowledge. It takes the wisdom that God through His Spirit infuses as the parent or guardian waits upon in meditation and in sub mission to God and His word. References 1. Atkinson, R. L. , R. C. Atkinson, E.E. Smith, D. J. Bem, and S. Nolen-Hoeksema, 1993. Introduction to Psychology, 13th ed. New York: Harcourt College Publishers. 2. Baumrind, Diana. 1959. Conceptual issues involved in evaluating improvement due to psychotherapy. Psychiatry, 22, 341-348. 3. Baumrind, Diana. 1975. The contributions of the family to the development of competence in children. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 14, 12-37. 4. Baumrind, Diana, 1971. Harmonious parents and their preschool children. Developmental Psychology, 4(1), 99-102. 5. Bernstein, D. A. , E. J. Roy, T. K. Srull, and C. D. Wickens, 1991. Psychology.New Jersey: Houghton Mifflin Company. 6. Bootzin, R. R. 1991. Psychology. New York: Gilford Press. 7. Morgan, Clifford T. 1977. A Brief Introduction to Psychology. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company. 8. Papalia, Diane E. , S. W. Olds. , RD Feldman. 2002. Human Development. 8th Ed. , International Edition. McGraw-Hill. 9. Thompson, Ross A. â€Å"Child Development. † Microsoft ® Encarta ® 2006 [DVD]. Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation, 2005. 10. The Holy Bible. 2001. New King James Version. Power BibleCD Online Publishing, Inc. 127 N. Matteson Street PO Box 21, Bronson, MI 49028

13 Ways Essay Stop And Frisk

1000C November 30, 2013 NYPD Stop and Frisk Laws: The Inevitable Reform New York City being one of the original immigration destinations for people immigrating to the United States should represent freedom; it should be a land of equality where an individual’s race will not hold them back and they will not be judged upon their accent or ethnicity; isn’t that the whole idea of the United States? If all of this is true, it makes no sense how the New York Police Department is allowed to use such intrusive, abusive, and embarrassing tactics such as Stop and Frisk. Being an average white suburban teen, I haven’t personally seen the effects of Stop and Frisk on a first hand account but to me it is clear that these practices are a problem. Stop and Frisk practices are associated with illegal stops, racial profiling, and violating privacy rights, the worst part is that this is all caused by the people who are supposed to be protecting citizens, the police, reform is detrimental for the future of New York City. For anyone unaware of Stop and Frisk Laws, they pretty much give police officers the right to stop whomever they deem as suspicious. After stopping an individual with little to no evidence of any crime stop and frisk gives police officers the right to question them and search them for weapons and other sorts of contraband. This leaves a lot of room for error due to the fact that police officers receive no extra training to help them decide who is or is not suspicious looking(Mathias). I couldn’t have put it better than one of my peers who answered one of the questions on my survey saying â€Å"No one knows how to judge who should be frisked and who shouldnt.† Honestly there is no way anyone can decide who is suspicious and who isn’t; police officers simply have to go with their gut and this is what usually leads to racial profiling. Stop and Frisk can lead to racial profiling because if an officer already has a preconceived idea that a certain race is more violent, more likely to commit crimes, or simply more sketchy then this will drastically affect who they stop and don’t stop. Sadly Black and Latino citizens are the one’s being profiled and discriminated against. The amount of data supporting this is uncanny, for example 87 percent of the people stopped in 2011 were Latino or Black (Mathias). To go even further, this gives racist police officers the power to stop and harass someone simply because they don’t like the way they look or talk. This practice put so many people at risk it is insane! Another problem of the Stop and Frisk practices are that they violate citizens’ right to privacy. It is completely intrusive and simply embarrassing to be stopped while you’re walking the street just because an officer thought you looked like a criminal. Now if police aren’t protecting citizen’s or their rights, rather they’re violating them this must take a toll on the NYPD-Citizen relationship. Thanks to Stop and Frisk practices the NYPD is looked down upon and even seen as lazy. These laws lead to citizens losing faith and trust in the NYPD, and without the police to depend on for security society could crumble. If people don’t believe that the police have their best interests in mind and are not there to protect them, they will feel defenseless and naturally will look somewhere else for protection; this could lead to a boom in gangs and mafias. All of this may seem far-fetched but thinking long term if Stop and Frisk laws are not reformed this is very possible. If these laws are not reformed there is potential for chaos†¦imagine riots lead by the thousands of people who feel singled out and discriminated against calling for a revolution. Although many people believe stop and frisk is bad for everyone, some people disagree and think that the stop and frisk laws are helping keep people safe. An example of this is when I interviewed one of my old martial arts instructors who is a police officer, he said that even though some police officers use racial profiling when deciding who to frisk not all police officers do and the entire NYPD shouldn’t be judged upon a few bad apples. He said at the end of the day no one created these laws with malicious intent. Another thing people might say to condone stop and frisk is that it is a necessary evil, that even though people’s rights are violated in the end these laws are there just to keep people safe. Bloomberg supports stop and frisk saying that NYPD finds 900 guns per year thanks to stop and frisk. Police officers say that even if an innocent is stopped it was a necessary precaution to keeping society safe because what if that person was bad and that hadn’t stopped them. And dealing with the racial profiling lawsuit against the NYPD some people may argue that there is no way around claims of profiling and it would be counterintuitive to not stop someone just because they are a certain race after all said and done no matter race is stopped people are going to have something to complain about. In my opinion although stop and frisk can be proved effective in some cases it is not worth risking people’s rights and mainly these tactics are illegal. So clearly that view is very different from mine, but another view is one where people say that instead of reforming the stop and frisk laws people say that these laws or practices are so despicable the need to be stopped completely without reform. Clearly the two sides discussed in this paragraph are extremes and I think my side is the most rational. I surveyed five of my peers to see how they felt on the topic, and as I suspected most of my peers strongly support the reform of stop and frisk. One of my questions was, has anyone in your family been affected by any of these laws? One individual responded with, â€Å"Yes my boyfriend has been stopped twice. He is the most straight-laced person I know, it is ridiculous that he has been stopped at all! † This quote proves my point that people are stopped completely without cause and if I had to guess I bet this girls boyfriend was stopped due to his race or color. Another example of my peers supporting my thesis is the majority of them said police officers misuse their power instead of using it responsibly and 100% of participants agreed that police officers use racial profiling when deciding who to stop. Another unanimous response was my question asking what ethnicity or race was most likely stopped the most frequently and everyone said African American. Some of the people who took my survey were black so imagine how they feel that the NYPD singles them out. Obviously these stop and frisk laws should clearly be reformed so that no one is being picked on or discriminated against. If you are white and do not care of feel affected by any of this, just imagine the roles were reversed and you were the one being discriminated against and stopped unjustly. I don’t know about you but I would definitely want everyone to help change this no matter what race they are, simply because these practices are wrong and everyone is supposed to be equal. Some ways we can fix this could be making stricter rules and regulations for officers and having the police department take responsibility when someone is wrongly stopped; the NYPD needs to be accountable for their actions. There should be a supervisor that the NYPD specifically has to answer to when dealing with stop and frisk so this problem gets the attention it deserves. In conclusion there are many ways to fix stop and frisk and reform is inevitable, so lets make it happen now! Works Cited Mathias, Christopher. NYPD Stop And Frisks: 15 Shocking Facts About A Controversial Program. The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost. com, 13 May 2012. Web. 01 Dec. 2013. . Stop and Frisk Practices | New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU) American Civil Liberties Union of New York State. Stop and Frisk Practices | New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU) American Civil Liberties Union of New York State. NYCLU, n. d. Web. 30 Nov. 2013. .

Colonial New York Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Colonial New York - Essay Example The population did contribute to the growth of New York into a big city with surrounding urban areas. The colonial masters did focus on settling in areas having a sea outlet. These areas were excellent sites for trading with external worlds and communication. They could also ease the transportation methods via water. Areas that were far from the sea exposure did remain far behind in terms of development. Whereas the East New York had a harbor from the East River, the western New York did remain less occupied. The western New York did not offer a good site for the British colonialists as they gather the raw materials for production of goods and services in their countries. Most of the residents of these areas remained enslaved. Slave trade remained the main economic activity of the people. It was the cornerstone of New York economy1. The environmental areas did not favor the growth of urban centers. In 1730, census, about 97% of the total population did reside in rural areas. The poor people did reside in back alleys and the streets. However, with the eruption of Industrial revolution, there was a rapid transformation of the living standards of people. There was a sudden urge to construct industries in a bid to create employment. Transportation and communication facilities also did expand2. During the colonial times, there were poor transport and communication facilities that could enhance movement from one place to another. Roads and railways were a historical issue. Failure to have these facilities did contribute immensely to lack of development in New York. Furthermore, it did translate to a fact that these areas were under exploited in terms of natural resources and raw materials for industrial utility. Development is seen in the area after the industrial revolution when roads, railways, telephones and telegraph networks are available. Poor technology did exhibit the colonial session. Electricity had not yet disseminated

Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 35

Essay Example Comprehensive job descriptions provide the main characteristics of the given position and clarify what expectations the employee should have again his job. Role perception is an association aiding both the manager and the employee in presenting and advertising the job position. For example, when hiring an IT specialist managers need to understand the key tasks and what skills are required by the applicant to accomplish the job in the most effective way. The role perception of the best candidate for the IT department requires having technical background. Even if the company provides initial training, the candidate must ensure that his role perception of IT specialist matches this of the Human Resources. IT specialist should be familiar with server administration, network programs and database administration. Also he has to have knowledge in operational software, data analysis and implementation of certain, internal company programs. Thus, making a job description easily understandable and keeping adequate feedback for a position is of crucial importance for ensuring the candidate’s understanding of what role he plays within the company. The best way to utilize the stereotyping ideas in enhancing the organizational behaviour is to employ the idea of positive organizational behaviour. This has direct implications for the success of a business. The key outcome of positive organizational behaviour is that it engages the employees to have a better understanding of the relationship between work and their personal happiness. In broader sense the stereotyping idea of enhancing the organizational behaviour makes the company flourish. Positivity at the work place helps to accomplish one’s purpose of life. Undoubtedly, working conditions inspire employees to engage more actively in the working processes. Imagine a customer service representative, who takes responsibility to deal with

Customer Retention (Marketing report) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Customer Retention (Marketing report) - Essay Example The entire report will focus on TESCO retail segment and discuss on the strategic focus of TESCO in the customer retention domain   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Strategic marketing planning is defined as an organization based planning designed in a way to understand the market opportunities, correlate the opportunities with the external environment and target audiences. While planning for strategic marketing the expected decision must be focused on the vision, mission, resources available and internal strengths of the company.(Hanna an 1992; Kotler & Andresen 1996; Andresen & Kotler 2003; Meek & Meek 2003). It is also evident that the strategic marketing planning is regarded as sub process in the context of corporate planning. (Gardner & Thomas 1985; Schendel 1985; Hanna an 1992; Meek & Meek 2003). Corporate management is a process of directing an organization either by deploying or manipulating resources to achieve higher rates of profit and also customer satisfaction. The above strategies and values of strategic planning are analyzed to identify the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats (SWOT Analysis) of the company with respect to the competitors. Interpretation of analysis reveals that the entire organization in involved and work together as a big task forces to achieve the goals of strategic planning. Apart from investigating the weakness and strengths of the company, strategic positioning is also an integral aspect of strategic marketing planning (Kotler & Andersen 1996; Hooley et al. 1998; 2001) for customer retention.   According to Chew (2003), strategic positioning is regarded as the differentiation in the level of positioning from the others who belong to the same society. It is justified that strategic positioning allows organizations to have a competitive advantage over their opponents. One of the disadvantages of competitive advantage does not ensure the continued success

Countrterrorism Article Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Countrterrorism - Article Example the country who enjoys the same provisions of the Law. 2. An American citizen captured in the United States of America while in the act of terrorist violence is guaranteed by the United States Constitution the right to habeas corpus, Article 1, section 9, clause 2. Additionally, the suspect is provided protection by certain provisions of the Bill of Rights. Like, the 4th amendment which states "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall be issued, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized; 5th amendment, No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger, nor shall any person be subject for the same offence t o be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb, nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation; 6th amendment, In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining Witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of counsel for his defense; and 8th amendment, Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted" (Emerson & Haber, 1952). 3. Just war may be grounded along the concept that the history of the Americans in the achievement of freedom has been long and tremendous, that even the powers of the government have been frameworked in a purposeful endeavor intended to safeguard individual rights. So, the war on terror can be properly characterized as just war if it is conducted within the realms of the United States constitution. This is because the United States constitution contains the series of laws that will guide law enforcement, and provides protection for the rights of everyone (Emerson & Haber, 1952). 4. Apparently, anti-Americanism is not really a problem in the homeland. Political expressions of individuals or groups, and nations will however continue (Celmer, 1987) which may sometimes be misconstrued as inciting to violence. Nonetheless, perpetrators of hostilities which go beyond the limits of individual and national rights

Construction method statement and risk assessment Essay

Construction method statement and risk assessment - Essay Example (eg Designing river diversions with a series of pools to allow salmon to swim uphill despite damming of rivers in Alaska) CONCEPT: The next step is to submit the preliminary design to local authorities with a detailed report on contextual impact including Environmental impact for feedback by Government authorities and the local population who may have valid feedback regarding its impact on their lives. At this stage, all viable options to achieve the ends without this drastic intervention shall be weighed and discussed. FINAL PROPOSAL: The final proposal shall be prepared on the basis of feedback received on the conceptual proposal, and submitted for permissions. The same proposal shall be priced and tendered out to ascertain budget. Communication to effected local populace on all aspects of construction that may impact their daily activities. This would include possible demolition schedules, changes to river traffic, increased heavy road traffic to and from project site, etc. The actual project execution begins after plant and machinery required has been finalised, human resource is on site and is trained, and complete documentation and drawings are available to begin work. B. Excavation of diversionary channel to depth including foundations and sidewalls. Both ends shall be cast in-situ with metal gates in shut position. These gates will be opened permanently after channel is complete. D. As it is cheaper, faster, environmentally friendly, and a better qualitative output, the sections of the channel shall be cast off-site, and lowered over the dowels jutting out of the PCC on site. The exposed re-bars will be tied to dowel re-bars and concrete shall be poured to give a smooth inner finish to the channel. All elements to control water speed within the channel shall be cast as parts of the off-site modules and placed as required by design. 1. Cranes and

Supporting Students with Mental Health Issues Essay

Supporting Students with Mental Health Issues - Essay Example Dennis should be referred to counseling due to his strange behavior. Also, since he is acting in a manner that is prejudicial to other people in the student body, the university should consider removing Dennis from student housing. Since Dennis is making threatening statements, not only to students but school officials, Dennis should be identified as a student with a mental health problem that needs to be addressed. Additionally, since he is disturbing students, he should probably be removed from campus housing, unless his behavior changes significantly. Perhaps a trial period could be instated from the time that Dennis starts attending counseling, which would remain for as long as Dennis stays in the dorms. If any more unusual behavior is exhibited or otherwise noted from resident life assistants, Dennis should be summarily removed from the dorms. Mainly due to the fact that Dennis is exhibiting threatening behavior, until he shows that he is continuing with therapy and working on issues-then and only then should he be allowed to stay on campus. Additionally, Dennis should be checked upon periodically by counselors and other mental health professionals to monitor his behavior. "A student may be out of touch with reality and not functioning normally but not necessarily threatening any physical harm to themselves or others. One of the difficulties of managing such a situation is the fear that it could develop into an emergency at any moment" ("Supporting Students With Mental Health Problems," 2009). However, in Dennis's case, he was threatening people, and this could have escalated into a more widespread problem if something was not done in order to counteract his strange behaviors. Case II: Gerry. Gerry's problems are more pervasive than Dennis's. First of all, Gerry physically harmed a student. In anyone's mind, even if that was subsequentially excused by way of the fact that Gerry had ingested LSD which caused the behavior, obviously it should be much harder to trust Gerry's behavior again on campus. The fact that one student was harmed was bad enough. Although Gerry's lawyer makes a point that Gerry would be in double jeopardy for having already been tried and acquitted for a crime, the university should seriously consider whether or not allowing Gerry on campus again would be a wise move. The university's policy states, "A student will be subject to involuntary administrative withdrawal from the University, or from University housing, if the Provost determines that the student suffers from a mental disorder that is adversely affecting his or her academic performance or behavior on campus in

Response Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 17

Response - Assignment Example Photographers capture the relationship of humans and nature. For instance, it is easy to explain and provide compelling evidence such as the effects of climate change through a photograph. Photography presents new and uncharted environments, and for that reason, a photographer needs adequate preparation for any environment. Evidently, photography goes beyond the concept of a business or a profit-making endeavor. It involves a passion of capturing the moment at the right time and identifying the audience. Through a photograph, humans can predict the next course of action (National Geographic 1). Several photographs have changed human perception towards their activities in the world. A perfect example is the picture that captured vulture standing next to a starving child in Ethiopia started a worldwide campaign on famine that ravaged the country in the 1980s. While other forms of capturing a moment, such as videos, may exaggerate an issue, photography presents an honest representation of the experience. Clearly, photography is life changing and makes people care. It is a powerful means of representation that changes human emotions. Through great photography, one can understand other communities and their time, and create an open-minded society. Happiness and tragedy all define human existence, and it is beneficial if photographers capture such events in an honest manner. Undoubtedly, the National Geographic photographers present an important point on the nature of interrelations in the present society. While the society largely believes that humans do not care about others or the environment, the video confirms that they do actually care. Photographs have a connection to human emotions in a powerful manner that can change the perception of humans to the society. They connect people through a universal language that forces one to care about their

Dream Worlds Essay Example for Free

Dream Worlds Essay So much has changed in how gender relations are carried out in today’s society. In past societies, much attention was paid to hierarchical relations. The women in the days of yore were only given a certain set of rights and privileges that were determined by men. Over the years, however, there has been a so-called â€Å"emancipation† of women. Beginning with the right to suffrage, women were gradually given increasing rights and participation in present day society. The influence that women have in today’s world is such that it can even be argued that they might even have the upper-hand gender wise. As Dream Worlds II reveals, one of the tools that women have used to regain their dominance over men is their sexuality. As the proverbial gate-keepers for sexual satisfaction, women are able to use their sexuality, seemingly at will, to gain whatever they want in society. While it seems that it is the men who are inducing these women to use their sexuality for material favors or otherwise, a close inspection will reveal that it is the result of a conscious decision of society. By engaging in a more capitalist mentality, the relation between the sexes is no longer about gender but rather accumulation of material wealth. The struggles that emerge between the sexes in today’s society are more concerned with gaining the upper-hand in a material aspect and everything, even sexuality, can be used as a tool in all of this. Given this situation, it would be incorrect to cite that it is subservience to men but rather it is the realization that such a facade is necessary to gain an upper-hand. There is no clear cut solution to this problem. In fact, it can be likened to supply and demand. There is a supply of women that meets a certain demand but in order to take advantage of this there must be an equivalent or greater exchange. It is more of a function of society than it is a battle of the sexes. A mutual agreement that this relationship is ideal in today’s situation.

The company’s efforts Essay Example for Free

The company’s efforts Essay Explain some of the company’s efforts to localize its offerings and describe how Successful these efforts were. What could have been done differently? Think local, Act local. Think local, Act local. This is company’s efforts to localize its offerings. Global business philosophy changes 3A to 3P principle, 3A is Availability, Affordability, Acceptability. It meaning is to make customers buy get, affordable, willing to buy. 3P is Pervasiveness, Price to value, Preference. (2) Held Activities Coca cola localized their products is based on countries’ culture such as Malaysia is Coke EURO 2012 â€Å"Buka Coca-Cola, Buka Semangat Bola† contest. And McDonalds introduced about the World Cup drinking cup in the 2012 World Cup. Besides, Coca cola localized in China through the Chinese design in Beijing Olympics. Beijing Olympic Games torch bearer selection, Coca Cola to provide 18 places. As a global partner of Beijing Olympic Torch Relay , Coca-Cola ( China ) Beverages Ltd. officially announced : [ Coca-Cola ] Olympic torchbearer selection Shanghai area started , the selection of the theme Who lit the flame of my heart to the public 18 torchbearers places the Olympic spirit and the journey of Harmony theme brought to every corner of Shanghai . (3) Indication marks The other belongs to the Coca-Cola company brand drinks of all the packaging and advertising, it is the emblem and the Coca-Cola company honor cooperation. For example, Sprite, Fanta .The words, this is actually in the ascension and strengthening Coca-Cola brand. In addition, with the local brand beverage friendly cooperative relations, as well as local brand beverage special affinity, Coca-Cola has a better relationship. (4) Advertisement Through the advertisement implants, also can improve the local people accept rate, and local phase fusion, increase sales. For example, the bottle of packaging is the local custom picture. In the development of any drinks can use original brand sales channels, like this is advantageous to quickly open the market, but also can greatly reduce the cost. Coke, Sprite, fanta and so on three brand sales ratio roughly 2:2:1, development basic equilibrium. From several brand reputation, reputation to market sales, show integral consistent, distinct features, taste and can achieve complementary. According to the characteristics of the Chinese market, the Coca-Cola company expanding their drinks varieties, from oolong tea to the new age style of fruit punch, high heat energy drinks, and even to the most ancient drinking water. So which is more in line with the tastes of the locals , and make it easier for everyone to accept. localize its offerings after, Products with the local people more close contact, from popularity and good reputation degree, market sales, can have very big promotion.

Hostile Or Friendly Takeovers Mergers Economics Essay

Hostile Or Friendly Takeovers Mergers Economics Essay The process of mergers and acquisitions is gaining a significant importance in todays corporate world and is extensively used for reorganizing the business organizations. (Cartwright, Cooper, 1992).The phrase mergers and acquisitions refer to the characteristic features of Corporate strategy, corporate finance and management that deal with the purchasing, selling and combining of different companies that can support, fund, or give their hand to an upcoming company in a given industry and grow rapidly without having to create another firm(Gauhan, 2007). There are many reasons why MNCS go in for merging and acquisition, the most important among them are the rising market, political power, defensive reactions, economies of scope or synergies, reduction of transaction and information costs.( Gaughan,2005) The factors that generates a firm to go in for merger and acquisition are identified in the budding regulatory changes that happen internationally, regionally at national levels and in the fast pace of technological change which enhance the market opportunities of a business, technological interrelationship, communications and cross border reconstituting. The advantages of MAs are evaluated in terms of the ability to exploit the scale and scope of economies, gain the market control, economize the transaction costs, diversify risks, and to provide access to the existing know-how It is. (Cantwell, Santangelo, 2002) A multinational enterprise (MNE) considering an entry into a foreign market by foreign direct investment (FDI) has to consider two strategic decisions regarding the organizational form of its foreign operation. First what is the level of control i.e. whether it will be a full ownership or a joint venture and, secondly, the mode of foreign entry i.e. setting up a new venture via Greenfield investment or merger and acquisition (Muller, 2007). Let us analyze the circumstances which make MA activity the optimal entry mode into a new international market in the forthcoming paragraphs. In the period of global competition, firms realise that the effectual use of universal sourcing will contribute significantly to the performance of the market. With the materialization of new products and technologies, the firms began to experience a new developing cycle which is accompanied by the degree of competition in the market. Most of the development of the industries experience four processes and they are starting up, developing, maturing and the declining (Wang, 2009). With the invention of new products and technologies, the industries start experiencing a new developing cycle. In the initial stages of development due to less competition firms preferred greenfield investment as the optimal mode of entry in to the foreign market. As the industry started maturing the speed of the MAs which is one of the main factor started to be seen as the biggest advantage over the Greenfield investment or any other entry modes (Kang, 2001). One of the most fundamental motives for MAs is th e speedy growth and the growth through MAs are a quicker process and it takes only few months than the other entry modes. An example of this kind is the German automobile company Daimler-Benz which realised that it needed a bigger occurrence in the U.S automobile market, therefore it did not waste its time by building new factories in United States which would have taken years, instead it acquired the number three U.S. automobile company, Chrysler, and merged the two operations to form Daimler-Chrysler(Barba Navaretti,2006). Firms either expand within their own industry which is the internal growth or they expand outside their business category which is the external growth to increase the market share or the removal of a rival. When the firms grow internally, competitors respond quickly and take the market share and in due course of time the firms advantages dissipate. The firms are left out with only solution of acquiring other companies that have possessions. For example Johnson a nd Johnson, rather than internally trying to be on the fore front of each of the major area of innovation decided to purchase those companies who had developed successful products. This strategy simply describes that instead of suppressing its competitors by its internal growth JJ stretched out for acquisition to increase its market power and this is referred to as inorganic development (Gaughan, 2007).Companies like Nestle use acquisition as a form of external growth to improve its organic growth( Morschett, Schramm-Klein,2009) Merging so as to create synergy is most often the cited validation for an acquirer to shell out a premium to the target firm. Synergy is created by redeploying a firms assets. The acquiring firm may transfer a resource from the target firm to the acquiring firm and assets may be redeployed from the bidder to the target. Authors like Colombo, Conca, and Gnan (2007) found that a strong forecaster of acquisition performance was the extent to which the asset is redeployed from the target. For example, Renault acquired Nissan and therefore the leadership skills of CEO Ghosn were redeployed to the benefit Renault and firms like Ford and GM were unsuccessful in enticing Ghosn away from Renault (Hopkins.D, 2008) Economic motivations are an important subcategory of MA establishing the economies of scale thereby reducing the costs due to superfluous resources of two firms in the same or related industry. Thus acquiring a firm in the same or a related industry results in considerable overlap between the two firms and reduces costs. When Daimler-Benz acquired Chrysler it announced that the merger would lead to $1.3 billion of cost savings in the first year mainly through collaboration (Morck, Yeung, 1992). Diversification is another important strategy that motivates the firms going in for MA.Diversification is growing outside a companys current industry category. Firms either diversifies to extend their product, extend their market, or purely diversify. When a firm is specialized in a given technology or product base it tries to enter new market by entering in to different industries, different social group or different geographical location. An example of this type is G.E which was merely an electronic company through a pattern of acquisitions and diversification started operating in insurance, television stations, plastics, medical equipments and so on(Hitt.M,Ireland.D,2009). Often firms go in for merger and acquisitions to exploit a core competence and take an insubstantial skill, know-how, or information and purchase it by spreading its use to additional industries where it can create a competitive advantage. For example the company such as Honda by its internal combustion engines develops a core competence and tries to use it as a basis of competitive advantage in different businesses (Hopkins, 2008) (Morosini, Shane, Singh, 1998) say that the larger the distance in culture of the countries in which merger partners are based the greater the potential benefit Cultural differences can also be a source of complimentary strength in the cross border MAs i.e. cultural differences between countries, like the nations strength allows working in groups for example collectivism in Japan versus the individualistic in the U.S, clearly shows that by the combination of two companies that are based out of different culture and country might result in a stronger combined company (Hennart, Young-Ryeol, 1993). Companies in order to improve their product development and to improvise their research and development which is important for the future growth of many companies go in for MA and cross border activities. During the 1990s a widespread consolidation took place in the pharmaceutical industry and the motive for such a merger was to come up with new drugs and mounting costs of RD, this explains the reason for the mega merger of Glaxo Wellcome and SmithKline Beecham merged in order to increase the RD budgets.(Gaughan.P,2007) Changes in the technology results a firm to either buy or sell depending on its position with respect to technological changes and effects. For example, Indias third largest software exporter Wipro had a success history of 10 acquisitions. Most of the acquired companies were based out in Europe and dealt technology or RD services. The Nerve Wire, AMS and Mpower helped Wipro gain skills in areas like financial securities, utility consulting and technologies respectively. (Paulson, Ed., Huber, 2007) CONCLUSION These were one among the few strategic factors that motivate a firm to opt for the Merger and Acquisition than going in for the other modes of entry. Despite the fact that by far the largest part of worldwide FDI takes the form of MA while in some regions Greenfield investment is most prominent.

Discuss How Carol Ann Duffy Makes Effective Use Of Metaphor. Essay

Discuss How Carol Ann Duffy Makes Effective Use Of Metaphor. In ‘Valentine’, Carol Ann Duffy uses metaphors to illustrate and attempt to explain the complex subject of love. ‘Valentine’ is a very poignant, meaningful poem which is on a very personal level with C.A.D. It seems as if she is drawing on personal experiences. The general tone of the poem appears to be one of bitterness and resentment. Forceful comments such as, ‘†¦Here..’ and ‘†¦Take it†¦Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ suggest that she still holds hidden anger towards the events from which she is drawing her memories. The main metaphor that she uses is of course an onion. She uses an onion to compare the different aspects of love in a number of ways. In the first instance of C.A.D’s use of an onion she uses it to compare the fact that both an onion and love have many layers. She proposes that this is a huge similarity between the two apparently unrelated objects. Secondly, C.A.D uses the onion’s shape and colour to reflect how life changing love can be. She describes the onion as ‘†¦a moon wrapped in brown paper†¦Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ What she means by this is that love can light up your heart but that it often becomes clouded by other issues and problems- the brown paper symbolizes the ‘barrier’. In another way, the brown paper could symbolize boundaries people sometimes erect because they are scared or cynical. C.A.D. seems to be cynical about love-all throughout the poem she seems to want to escape the clichà ©s and what most people would consider as romance. Perhaps this may be because she has had a bad experience of love which she has then illustrated through words in her poem. Just after this she states ‘†¦it promises light..’ which means that C.A.D is suggesting that sometimes a... ...reak. In the final stanza, C.A.D writes, ‘†¦the air tasted of electricity..’ She is referring to the charged atmosphere caused by adolescent hormones. Obviously the classroom is going to be full of hormones because of all the children. Another reference to the heavily charged atmosphere is, ‘†¦the heavy, sexy sky..’ which just supports the atmosphere being hormonally charged. Carol Ann Duffy’s use of metaphors is very effective and illustrative-it causes readers to form subconscious links between objects which in reality are apparently unrelated. Without the use of metaphors, her poems would be entirely different and I am not sure they would be as flowing or as descriptive. The metaphors are often the basis upon which C.A.D’s descriptions are built. She uses them to great effect by blending and layering metaphors with other adjectives and descriptions.

Anorexia and Bulimia :: Causes of Bulimia, Eating Disorders

Anorexia And Bulimia Anorexia Nervosa: a condition characterized by intense fear of gaining weight or becoming obese, as well as a distorted body image, leading to an excessive weight loss from restricting food intake and excessive exercise. Bulimia: an eating disorder in which persistent overconcern with the body weight and shape leads to repeat episodes of binging (consuming large amounts of food in a short time) associated with induced vomiting.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  To support our definitions we interviewed Dr. David Praul of Charter Hospital by fax. 1. Is there a typical sufferer of Anorexia or Bulimia?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  While anorexics are often members of the middle class or affluent society, recent findings show sufferers come from all backgrounds and many different styles and sizes of families. Also there is a tendency for anorexics to set unreasonably high goals and to aim for perfection in all that they do.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Generally speaking, bulimia is likely to begin after the late teens, while anorexia more often starts during adolescence. The incidence of anorexia or bulimia in males is about 5% of all cases, with the onset of the disorders generally mid-teens to early twenties. 2. What are the causes of the eating disorders Anorexia Nervosa and Bulimia?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There are many theories, but no clear picture. It is an over simplification to blame the mass media's presentation to blame the mass media's presentation of the ideal shape: though western society's increased emphasis on the slim, fit body places pressure on many people.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  We know there are many factors affecting the development of the disorders- biological, psychological and sociological- so the relationship between parent and child need not to be seen as the dominant cause. However the reluctance to mature physically (sexually) and emotionally, and the issues of personal control between parent and child, could contribute to some cases of anorexia.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Low self -esteem and poor body image contributes to both disorders; and it seems life crises- such as changing relationships, childbirth or death- may trigger the eating disorders. 3. What are the side-effects of Anorexia and Bulimia?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  These are described more fully in Anorexia and Bulimia Nervosa Foundation of Victoria's brochures on the disorders.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The anorexic experiences physical side-effects similar to malnutritian, with severe sensitivity to the cold, loss of menstral periods and growth of down-like body hair. Bulimic women may also stop mensturating or have irregular periods. Both disorders involve the possible dysfunction of the kidneys, imbalance in the bodily chemicals and damage to colon or urinary tracts. Constant vomiting erodes dental enamel and gives the person a sore throat and gullet.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Each disorder places tremendous emotional strain on sufferers, the malnourishment of anorexics actually results in an inability to think clearly or

The Taming of the Shrew by William Shakespeare :: The Taming of the Shrew Essays

In the late twentieth century, it is not unusual for audience members to come away from productions of The Taming of the Shrew with the impression that they have just witnessed the story of a dynamic woman turned into a Stepford wife.1 There are also Shakespearean critics who hold such views. G. I. Duthie, for instance, describes Katherina as a "spirited woman who is cowed into abject submission by the violence of an egregious bully" (147). John Fletcher's 1611 play The Woman's Prize, or the Tamer Tamed, in which Petruchio's second wife treats him as he had treated Kate,2 suggests that even during Shakespeare's lifetime the battle of the sexes within the play had become a battle of the critics outside it.3 Shakespearean scholars on the other side argue, as Charles Boyce does, that far from being a tale of domination, "the play's main plot concerns the development of character and of love in a particular sort of personality" (626). Boyce goes on to say that "The violence in The Shrew--except for the beatings of servants ... is limited to Katherina's own assaults on Bianca and Petruchio" (626). Nor is Boyce alone in his belief that Petruchio is physically kind to Kate; as Robert Speaight writes, "It is only to others that he is rough" (59). Much of the confusion comes from a simultaneous idealization of the twentieth century4 and denigration of the sixteenth, a glorification of the sensibilities of modern critics, directors, and audiences coupled with a condemnation of the "medieval" insensitivity of the playwright. For example, Jonathan Miller, director of the 1980 BBC Shrew, says, "Shakespeare is extolling the virtues of the obedient wife ... in accordance with the sixteenth-century belief that for the orderly running of society, some sort of sacrifice of personal freedom is necessary." He defends his position with an attack, arguing that "If we wish to make all plays from the past conform to our ideals ... we're simply rewriting all plays and turning them into modern ones," a practice he calls "historical suburbanism" (140). However, he is himself engaging in a procedure which might be called historical blurring, allowing certain historical trends to obscure individuals and their divergent opinions.5 No period can be correctly characterized as homogeneous, certainly not a time as tendentious as the Renaissance. To maintain that women's rights were not hotly debated by Shakespeare and his contemporaries is ignorance coupled with arrogance, and to fit the creator of Portia, Rosalind, and Viola into the company of male supremacists requires an adept mental contortionist.

Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

Hanoi University Faculty of Management and Tourism Vietnam's Consumer Price Index and Influencing Factors An Econometrics Report 5/11/2012 Tutorial 2 – BA09 Lecturer: Ms. Dao Thanh Binh Tutor: Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh Group members: Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID: 0904000018 Ngo Thi Mai Huong ID: 0904000039 Le Thanh Long ID: 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID: 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID: 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID: 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID: 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID: 0904000092 AcknowledgementFirst and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the possibility to complete this research. We would like to convey our sincere thanks to our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and dedicated lectures. Without her valuable knowledge, this research cannot be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude also goes to our beloved tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her devoted inst ructions and support were of great help.Without her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this paper would not be able to come to this result. Abstract In recent years, Vietnam’s inflation has increased to an alarming rate of two-digit, ranking itself one of 5 countries having the highest inflation rate in the world. That Consumer Price Index (CPI) has incessantly escalated is the primary reason for such worrying issue. Our project, therefore, is aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnam’s CPI by testing the impact of following factors on CPI: USD/VND exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply.Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing from CPI and affecting factors analysis may be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur as a result of distressing inflation. The model that can best illustrate relationship between the independent variables and CPI has been detected. Basing on our research, it is apparent that those four variables have a significant influence on Consumer Price Index. Table of Contents Acknowledgementii Abstractiii List of Tables and Figuresv 1. Introduction1 2. Methodology2 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sources2 . 2. Methods of processing the data2 3. Data analysis3 3. 1. Consumer Price Index3 3. 2. Exchange rate4 3. 3. Petrol price5 3. 4. Rice price6 3. 5. Money supply7 4. Model specification7 4. 1. Variables and relationships7 4. 2. Model selection8 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing13 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation13 5. 2. Hypothesis testing13 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients13 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model15 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable16 6. Errors and limitation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2.Errors and remedials18 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocorrelation21 7. Conclusion24 Appendixa Referencesb List of Tables and Figures Table 1: EVi ew regression result: Lin-lin model9 Table 2: EView regression result: Log-log model10 Table 3: EView regression result: Lin-log model11 Table 4: EView regression result: Log-lin model12 Table 5: R2 and CV comparison between models12 Table 6: EView regression result: New model16 Table 7: EView regression result: P-R,MS18 Table 8: EView regression result: R-P,MS19 Table 9: EView regression result: MS-P,R19Table 10: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21 Table 11: EView regression result: Durbin-Watson statistic22 Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 223 Figure 1: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 20103 Figure 2: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 20104 Figure 3: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 20105 Figure 4: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 20106 Figure 5: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion)7 1. Introduction Every nation worldwide has ever confronted with inflation and attempting to solve inflation problem.Vie tnam is not an exception. Inflation has proved to be one of the most concerned issues by both Vietnamese government and economists for nearly a decade as it has tendency towards ceaselessly inflating since 2004. Inflation is an increase in overall prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate during a year will probably rise if there is a escalation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that year comparing to previous year, basing on following formula: InflationYear 2=CPIYear 2-CPIYear 1CPIYear 1Therefore, understanding the nature of inflation and efficiently anticipating it can essentially improve and strengthen the economy in generally, guiding business towards better strategy, as well as helping people adapt to price change in particular. Not only is CPI a powerful tool for government and economic experts to observe the whole society’s level of consumption, but it also, more importantly, predict the inflation rate that may have a considerable impact on the whole economy as well as the people’s daily lives.According to World Bank and International Monetary Funds (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-inflation zone with a growing CPI. As for IMF’s facts, Vietnam’s CPI in August 2011 went up by 23. 02% compared to the same month of 2010; CPI in December 2011 also increased by 15. 68% compared to 2010. Besides, Vietnam’s economy has witnessed a simultaneous boost in price of goods and petrol throughout the year, together with decreasing purchasing power in recent years. Do these facts indicate a bad situation for Vietnam? We probably do not know for sure.We, instead, can help develop a more optimistic economy from the prediction of CPI as well as inflation rate of Vietnam. From such above serious facts and figures, this project is conducted to analyze Vietnam’s CPI and factors affecting CPI, then, giving prediction about Vietnam’s inflation rate by forming an overall picture of v ariations in people’s living expenditure, thus assist judging the possibility of inflation which may collapse even a huge economy of Vietnam due to the case of hyperinflation. 2. Methodology 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sourcesAs discussed earlier and will be examined deeper later in this paper, there are some factors that play an important role in deciding the level of consumer price index in Vietnam. They consist of the movement of exchange rate (specifically, the USD/VND exchange rate), the price of petrol in Vietnam which is very critical, the Vietnamese rice price and governmental money supply. Through the application of econometric theories along with the examination of each single factor, the model can be formed as follow: CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In order to gather the information regarding the four factors (independent variables), a number of data have been collected in the period 2000 – 2010: * The annual Vietnamese USD/VND exchange rate; * The annual Vietnamese rice price; * The annual money supply of Vietnamese government and other institutions; * The annual petrol price of Vietnam. All the data gathered have been found from various sources on trusted websites, in which we can count on the reliability and accuracy of the statistics and other related information. 2. 2. Methods of processing the data The data gathered above are just raw data.Therefore, in order to make prediction about the level of CPI in Vietnam accurately, some processes and calculation surely need to be made. First time, the raw data ought to be processed through the power of such computational tools as Eview and Microsoft Excel. Particularly, Microsoft Excel will help determine the trend in the independent variables (exchange rate, rice price, money supply and petrol price) as they change throughout the years and other necessary computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in figuring out some critical indicators (t-st atistic, R squared, adjusted R squared, p-value, etc. . After having those numbers and indices, two tests (the t-test and the f-test) are professionally used to make out not only the degree of significance of each independent variable but also the overall meaningfulness that all the independent variables contribute to the determination of CPI. From then on, it should be more convenient for us to make some anticipation about the trend of CPI in Vietnam based on the processed data we made. 3. Data analysis 3. 1. Consumer Price Index Figure [ 1 ]: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 2010First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) measures of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. In fact, it provides information about price changes in the nation’s economy to government, business, labor and private citizens and is used by them as a guide to making economic decisions. Therefore, analyzing CPI is very important this aids in formulating fiscal and monetary po licies. As can be seen from the chart, there was a steady increase in the CPI from 2000 to 2010. In other word, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living during 10 years.To specify, after undergoing a slight growth in the first fourth years from 100 to about 110, CPI increased significantly to a peak of around 210 in the last year. There are many factors including exchange rate, money supply, rice price and petrol price which cause this growth in CPI are being concerned. 3. 2. Exchange rate Figure [ 2 ]: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the exchange rate of USD/VND experienced an upward trend. In 2000, the USD/VND exchange rate was VND 14,170, then increased by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the exchange rate remained stable around VND 15,700 which can be explained by some rationales. First of all, Vietnam central bank manipulated the market by sellin g USD and tried to adjust the exchange rate unchanged in following years (vietcombank, 2002). Moreover, due to the US economic instability and USD depreciation against other currencies, VND depreciated less than expected. In 2009, the exchange rate underwent a surge to VND17, 066 and continued increasing dramatically to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central bank implemented many policies to stabilize the exchange rate, it still rose significantly since many citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it appreciated much more against VND (scribd, 2010). Another reason is the real demand in USD due to the increase in exported products and labours. According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, vice president of the Central Bank, increasing exchange rate is an effective tool crafted by the central bank to boost export and economic development (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . Petrol price Figure [ 3 ]: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data accumulated, the gasoline pric e generally has an upward trend though the 11-year period from 2000 to 2010 Over the first 4 years from 2000 to 2003, the price of gasoline remained the same or changed not much. The 4 years of price stability had experienced the dramatic change, which was a huge increase to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the gasoline price slightly felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, followed by a significant growth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the duration of 2008 and 2010. In conclusion, the price of gasoline in Vietnam is predicted to be continuing to grow over the next few years. 3. 4. Rice price Figure [ 4 ]: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice price has an upward trend though the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010. The price of rice sold was fairly steady over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight rise to 100. 6%. This stability was followed by a sudden increase to 122. % in 2006. This trend was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an official member of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnam’s inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 2007–2008 world food price crises contributed a part in the growth of world food price in general and rice price in Vietnam in particular ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), leading to a remarkable rise on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vietnamese rice shot up over 2. 5 times from 2000 (100%) to 2010 (215. %) and this trend is surmised to still keep going on in next few years. 3. 5. Money supply Figure [ 5 ]: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion) Starting with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the amount of money in the economy saw a slight rise between 2001 and 2004 but money supply still lower than $ 500,000 million, before ending with a significant increase for the last period and reaching at $ 2, 478,310 billion in 2010. With the amount of money in market increasing by from 15% to 50% each year; Vietnamese have more money to spend and price level also affected. 4.Model specification 4. 1. Variables and relationships In order to study the movements of CPI in Vietnam, it is essential to evaluate the factors that drive the changes in CPI. a) USD/VND exchange rate It is easily seen that Vietnam has suffered from a great trade deficit which means import being more than export. Therefore, if the exchange rate USD/VND increases, which can be explained as VND depreciates against USD; imported products will be more expensive than before. Since imported products exceed exported products, Vietnamese consumers have to suffer from higher price of all imported products.By that, domestic producers as the result will take advantage of this moment to increase the price of domestic products to compete with other foreign products. Tradable goods being half the basket of the CPI will increase t he price which leads to the surge in the CPI. b) Petrol price Almost all the products directly or indirectly need the use of petrol as the main fuel for transportation, production or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of petrol increases, the cost of production will experience a rise as well.Hence, the producers will increase the prices of goods to compensate for the increase in production cost which contributes to higher CPI. c) Rice price One of the main categories that are included in the basket of goods when calculating CPI is food. Vietnam is a country where people consume rice as the main food in daily meals, thus the change in rice price will affect the CPI of Vietnam. d) Money supply Lastly, as CPI is heavily dependent on the prices of goods and services, money supply is also one of the factors that have effect on CPI.This can be explained by the fact that the higher supply of money there is on the market, the lower the value of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam Dong depreciates, prices of goods and services will be higher and vice versa. As a result, money supply changes lead to CPI changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the identification of the factors affecting CPI above, the variables will be denoted as follow: CPI: Consumer Price Index ER: Exchange rate of USD/VND P:Petrol price R: Rice price MS:Money supplyA number of possible models are applicable for the research, and in order to evaluate the appropriateness of each model, we based on 2 criteria: * R2: Coefficient of determination: The percentage of variation in CPI is explained by the model. * CV: Coefficient of variation: The average error of the sample regression function relative to the mean of Y. The model with higher R2 and lower CV is better. a) Lin-Lin model CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:20| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 49. 84103| 25. 60055| 1. 946873| 0. 0995| ER| 0. 000830| 0. 001632| 0. 508588| 0. 6292| P| 0. 002170| 0. 000396| 5. 480252| 0. 0015| R| 0. 236729| 0. 046411| 5. 100736| 0. 0022| MS| 2. 02E-05| 5. 21E-06| 3. 885527| 0. 0081| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998614|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997691|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 1. 879410|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 402748| Sum squared resid| 21. 19309|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 83610| Log likelihood| -19. 21511|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 288740| F-statistic| 1081. 125|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 490665| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 1 ]: EView regression result: Lin-lin model Regression function: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729 ? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 998614 CV=? Y=1. 879410137. 9727=0. 013622 b) Log-Log model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:22| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1. 145265| 1. 841843| -0. 621804| 0. 5569| LOG(ER)| 0. 215912| 0. 205886| 1. 048698| 0. 3347| LOG(P)| 0. 089703| 0. 048661| 1. 843424| 0. 1148| LOG(R)| 0. 413783| 0. 038424| 10. 76876| 0. 0000| LOG(MS)| 0. 081931| 0. 034964| 2. 343304| 0. 0576| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998138|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 996897|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 014939|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -5. 266690| Sum squared resid| 0. 01339|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz c riterion| -5. 085828| Log likelihood| 33. 96679|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -5. 380698| F-statistic| 804. 0941|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 453663| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 2 ]: EView regression result: Log-log model Regression function: ln? (CPI)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin-Log model CPI=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | |Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1186. 909| 420. 9102| -2. 819864| 0. 0304| LOG(ER)| 85. 49691| 47. 05046| 1. 817132| 0. 1191| LOG(P)| 9. 066673| 11. 12034| 0. 815324| 0. 4460| LOG(R)| 80. 80824| 8. 780996| 9. 202627 | 0. 0001| LOG(MS)| 1. 356787| 7. 990229| 0. 169806| 0. 8707| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995428|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992380|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 3. 414025|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 5. 96616| Sum squared resid| 69. 93340|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 5. 777478| Log likelihood| -25. 78139|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 5. 482608| F-statistic| 326. 5862|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 282666| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 3 ]: EView regression result: Lin-log model Regression function: CPI=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) Log-Lin model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | |Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 4. 288043| 0. 311641| 13. 75958| 0. 0000| ER| 7. 55E-06| 1. 99E-05| 0. 379928| 0. 7171| P| 2. 76E-05| 4. 82E-06| 5. 717411| 0. 0012| R| 0. 000539| 0. 000565| 0. 953313| 0. 3772| MS| 1. 38E-07| 6. 34E-08| 2. 184042| 0. 0717| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995633|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992722|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 22878|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -4. 414290| Sum squared resid| 0. 003141|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| -4. 233428| Log likelihood| 29. 27859|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -4. 528297| F-statistic| 341. 9975|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 798845| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 4 ]: EView regression result: Log-lin model Regression function : ln? (CPI)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we have a comparison of R2 and CV among the models: | R2| CV| a| 0. 998614| 0. 013622| b| 0. 998138| 0. 030531| c| 0. 995428| 0. 24744| d| 0. 995633| 0. 046755| Table [ 5 ]: R2 and CV comparison between models From the results above, the model a) is the most appropriate model to explain the relationship between CPI the other factors: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation The chosen Lin-Lin model and its interpretation are described as follow: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103: If exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply equal 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic sense as there is no situation that e xchange rate, petrol price, rice price or money supply could be equal to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083: Holding other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217: Holding other variables constant, if price of petrol rises by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729: Holding other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI will rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002: Holding other variables constant, if money supply increases by 1 unit, CPI will go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. Hypothesis testing 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients a) Test the individual significance of ? 2 * Step 1: H0: ? 2=0 Ha: ? 2? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to conclude that ? is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. b) Test the individual significance of ? 3 * Step 1: H0: ? 3=0 Ha: ? 3? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 3 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. c) Test the individual significance of ? 4 * Step 1: H0: ? 4=0 Ha: ? ? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 4 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. d) Test the individual significance of ? 5 * Step 1: H0: ? 5=0 Ha: ? 5? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 5 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model * Step 1: H0: ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha: i? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if f-stat;fc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * Step 5: F-stat value f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. 125;fc=4. 3 * Step 6: Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is e nough evidence to conclude that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically significant. 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable From the test above, we drew the conclusion that ? 2 is insignificant. Thus, an F-test of dropping the independent variable of Exchange rate from the model will be conducted. The regression results obtained from EView of the new model is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 11:07| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 62. 73309| 3. 386991| 18. 52178| 0. 0000| P| 0. 002123| 0. 000364| 5. 828831| 0. 0006| R| 0. 229613| 0. 041843| 5. 487545| 0. 0009| MS| 2. 22E-05| 3. 29E-06| 6. 758719| 0. 0003| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998555|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997935|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11 026| S. E. of regression| 1. 777106|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 263137| Sum squared resid| 22. 10674|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 407826| Log likelihood| -19. 44725|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 171931| F-statistic| 1612. 50|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 175208| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 6 ]: EView regression result: New model The old model is: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The new model is: CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * Step 1: H0: ? 2 = 0 Ha: ? 2 ? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/Number of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if F* ; Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * Step 5: F* value F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * Step 6: Conclusion F* ; Fc Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically reasonable to drop Exchange Rate variable from the model. The new model obtained is:CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS| 6. Errors and limitation 6. 1. Limitations In spite of the results and discussion mentioned above, our report in general and our model in particular have their limitations that hinder our group to develop the most effective model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 dependent variable and 4 independent variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we have only collected 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not have the similar observations. It is obvious to state that the larger the sample size the higher the probability that our sample statistics get close to the true value or population parameters. For such reason, our small number observations may result in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there exists mutual effects among the independent variables. For instance , the Money supply may have an effect on the Exchange rate. Additionally, the Rice price is also influenced by the Petrol price because petrol is the main energy source for production, etc.Such problems may falsify our results and they will be discussed further in the section of errors and remedies. To conclude, even though limitations exist, the foundation of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the future will be designed and eliminated all negative limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists due to some functional the existence of linear relationship among some or all independent variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators have large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. This error can lead to large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. In order to detect the existence of multicollinearity, a simple tool of detection which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of auxiliary regressions that depict the relation ship between the independent variables must be done. Dependent Variable: P| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 12:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 2529. 790| 3163. 446| 0. 799695| 0. 4470| R| 28. 45504| 39. 34718| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 0. 003706| 0. 002908| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 890213|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 10088. 18| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 862766|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 4656. 172| S. E. of regression| 1724. 882|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 17. 97071| Sum squared resid| 23801730|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 18. 07922| Log likelihood| -95. 83888|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 17. 90230| F-statistic| 32. 434 22|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 144479| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00145| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 7 ]: EView regression result: P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 10855;10 Dependent Variable: R| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:11| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 67. 25990| 15. 92311| 4. 224043| 0. 0029| P| 0. 002156| 0. 002982| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 5. 93E-05| 1. 82E-05| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 943086|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 144. 2364| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 928858|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. ependent var| 56. 29715| S. E. of regression| 15. 01585|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 8. 483090| Sum squared resid| 1803. 805|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 8. 591607| Log likelihood| -43. 65699|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 8. 414685| F-statistic| 66. 28185|   Ã ‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 625481| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000010| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 8 ]: EView regression result: R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 57047;10 Dependent Variable: MS| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:13| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -912567. 0| 169274. 2| -5. 391058| 0. 0007| P| 45. 52633| 35. 72593| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| R| 9603. 994| 2954. 787| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 949597|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 931956. 0| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 936996|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 761613. 1| S. E. of regression| 191169. 4|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 27. 38671| Sum squared resid| 2. 92E+11|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 27. 49522| Log likelihood| -147. 6269|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 27. 31830| F-statistic| 75. 36010|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 509023| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00006| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 9 ]: EView regression result: MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 84009;10 From the results above, we see that VIFP ; 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS ; 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for Petrol variable, while multicollinearity exists for Rice and Money Supply variables. This can be explained by the fact that Petrol price is not influenced by other factors whilst Rice and Money Supply are influenced by Petrol price, as petrol is one of the main sources of energy for production of other goods and services. In general, multicollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole purpose of our research is for prediction and forecasting the inflation level of Vietnam based on CPI and the factors affecting CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a serious issue for our research and we decided to take no action to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models violate one assumption which is homoskedasticity of equal variance of error terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard errors) of the coefficients to be biased, possibly above or below the true or population variance.As the consequence, biased standard error estimation can lead to both type I error (reject the true hypothesis) and type II error (do not reject false hypothesis). To detect the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose White's Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) to detect the existence of heteroskedasticity. * Step 1: H0: Homoskedasticity. Ha: Heteroskedasticity. * Step 2: Run the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui Run the auxiliary regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+†¦ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+†¦ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0:? 2=? 3=†¦ = ? q W-statistic: W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if W>? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * Step 5: W-statistic value From the results of EView, we have White Heteroskedasticity Test:| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Probability| 0. 720319| Obs*R-squared| 5. 253654| Probability| 0. 511716| | | | | | Test Equation:| Dependent Variable: RESID^2| Method: Least Squares| Date: 05/09/12 Time: 19:52| Sample: 2000 2010| Included observations: 11| Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | C| -51. 06331| 66. 56641| -0. 767103| 0. 4858| P| -0. 003894| 0. 005892| -0. 60928| 0. 5448| P^2| 1. 82E-07| 3. 29E-07| 0. 552995| 0. 6097| R| 1. 041681| 1. 113821| 0. 935232| 0. 4026| R^2| -0. 003233| 0. 003599| -0. 898302| 0. 4198| MS| -1. 70E-05| 3. 45E-05| -0. 490921| 0. 6492| MS^2| 8. 86E-12| 1. 31E-11| 0. 676092| 0. 5361| R-squared| 0. 477605| Mean dependent var| 2. 009703| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 305988| S. D. dependent var| 3. 115326| S. E. of regression| 3. 560188| Akaike info criterion| 5. 638630| Sum squa red resid| 50. 69977| Schwarz criterion| 5. 891836| Log likelihood| -24. 01247| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 651900| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 20319| Table [ 10 ]: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 – dU: Reject H0 * dU < d < 4 – dU: Do not reject H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL: Inconclusive k' = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595;dU = 1. 928 * Step 5: D-statistic value From EView table, we have D-statistic = 2. 175208 * Step 6: Conclusion We have 4 – dU = 4 – 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 – dL = 4 – 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL. There is not enough evidence to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:| | | | | | | | | | | | F-statistic| 0. 399592|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob. F(2,5)| 0. 6903| Obs*R-squared| 1. 515907|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob.Chi-Square(2)| 0. 4686| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Test Equation:| | | | Dependent Variable: RESID| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 14:40| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 0. 366991| 3. 997023| 0. 091816| 0. 9304| P| 0. 000262| 0. 000749| 0. 349805| 0. 7407| R| -0. 020687| 0. 052521| -0. 393881| 0. 7099| MS| -1. 21E-07| 4. 84E-06| -0. 025029| 0. 9810| RESID(-1)| -0. 121687| 0. 700832| -0. 173632| 0. 8690|RESID(-2)| -0. 759777| 1. 305304| -0. 582069| 0. 5858| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 137810|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| -5. 51E-15| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 724381|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 1. 486833| S. E. of regression| 1. 952445|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 478494| Sum squared resid| 19. 06021|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 695528| Log likelihood| -18. 63172|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan- Quinn criter. | 4. 341685| F-statistic| 0. 159837|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 950970| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 967201| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 12 ]: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 2 * Step 1: Identify Ho and Ha:Ho: No second order autocorrelation Ha: Second order autocorrelation * Step 2: Test statistic: BG – statistic = (n – p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * Step 3: Significance level: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule: Reject H0 if BG; ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * Step 5: BG-statistic value From EView table, we have BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 ; 5. 99174 * Step 6: Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to infer the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also notice that the p-value of first-order is greater than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion After thorou ghly investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best appropriate model, which can well explain the relationship between CPI and affecting factors, is the following one: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the model is proved to rather make sense as the fact that three independent variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, apparently affect Vietnam's CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is clearly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is reasonably dropped out of the model. Moreover, all independent variables have positive relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is truly difficult to have any suitable remedial. And, two rest errors including h eteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is unavoidable to some errors and limitations, but these problems seem trivial and slight. From above analyzed data, the independent variables present a common trend of increasing, which leads to tendency of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we insist that the CPI for the next years will boost. Despite Vietnamese government's important efforts to refrain the inflation rate, it is still essentially prone to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix Data of CPI, Exchange rate, Petrol price, Rice price and Money supply from 2000 to 2010Year| CPI| Exchange Rate| Petrol price| Rice price| Money supply (VND billion)| 2000| 100| 14,170. 23| 5400| 100| 196,994. 00| 2001| 102| 14,816. 76| 5400| 101| 250,846. 00| 2002| 104. 3| 15,346. 00| 5400| 101. 5| 284,144. 00| 2003| 107. 6| 15,475. 99| 5600| 100. 6| 378,060. 00| 2004| 115. 9| 15,704. 13| 7000| 114. 8| 495,447. 00| 2005| 125. 5| 15,816. 69| 1 0000| 118. 6| 648,574. 00| 2006| 134. 9| 15,963. 81| 12000| 122. 5| 841,011. 00| 2007| 146. 3| 16,126. 20| 11300| 142| 1,254,000. 00| 2008| 179. 6| 16,303. 54| 16320| 215. 2| 1,513,540. 00| 2009| 192| 17,066. 34| 15700| 218. 6| 1,910,590. 00| 2010| 209. | 18,620. 84| 16850| 251. 8| 2,478,310. 00| References BBC, 2007. Vietnam's WTO membership begins. Available online at URL: http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. stm (Accessed May 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. Di? u hanh chinh sach t? gia nam 2008 va phuong hu? ng nam 2009. 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